IFF has found a 'three horizons' model of longer term change a useful framework both in workshop settings and for deeper analysis. The development and use of the model is explained elsewhere on the IFF website.
It adds a further dimension to the power and scope of the World System Model to apply it in each of the three horizons.
The Horizon 1 version of the world model is our current situation as diagnosed in the trends and discontinuities in the 12 factors. If this continues it will lead to significant disruption and collapse.
Horizon 3 is the vision (or visions) of a viable future society. In H3 the world model provides a thinking and learning framework for considering the preconditions for ‘the good life’ – future planetary viability. Horizon 3 has the potential to displace Horizon 1. But since the future is emergent and can never be well known, it must always remain a shaping vision rather than a predictive one.
The area of great challenge and tension is Horizon 2. Here the world model can be used as a framework to help identify the innovations and changes that will help the transition to ways of living within the new conditions. This is the horizon in which we experiment, invent and pioneer alternatives. Some will succeed, some will fail, some will be hijacked to prop up the declining system and some will, surprisingly, be effective beyond expectation.