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Posts Tagged ‘pandemic’

Resilience: plan for anything, don’t plan for everything

Sunday, May 2nd, 2010
Photo: Craig Murphy http://bit.ly/aglTji

Photo: Craig Murphy http://bit.ly/aglTji

‘We are now in the recrimination phase‘.  That’s how the British Medical Journal describes growing public scrutiny of the government’s response to the swine flu pandemic that broke out a year ago.

The Scotsman splashed its front page earlier this week with news that Scotland spent more than £1m a week protecting us from what turned out to be a mild influenza no worse than winter flu.  Did we over-react?

The same questions are being asked, even more forcefully, in relation to the chaos, disruption and substantial cost of closing UK airspace following the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajoekull.  Now the planes are back in the air the recrimination phase is in full flow.  Did we over-react?

(more…)

Pandemic flu response: insights from the IFF world game

Sunday, May 3rd, 2009

A group recently gathered at The Boathouse to play the IFF World Game.  The game is based on a ‘world model’ with 12 interconnecting nodes.  We used the opportunity to explore how a potential pandemic might unfold in today’s complex, interconnected global context.

world model image compressedThinking through the management of a pandemic crisis in this way prompted interesting observations and insights about the nature of resilience and the way we tend to respond to ‘emergencies’ with a relatively short term mindset.

At the same time other more specific insights emerged about how a pandemic might play out over time and perspectives that may be missing or underplayed in current contingency planning:

Managing Worldview:  the heart of the governance challenge in a pandemic is to shape how the public interpret the unfolding crisis.  This is not easy, striking a balance between reassurance to avoid panic and engendering a complacent, false sense of security.  Given that the pandemic is likely to strike in waves, with the first probably dying out with relatively little impact at least in northern climes, maintaining trust and attentiveness for public messaging over time will be a challenge.  (more…)

Resilience and Transformation: making the most of a crisis

Friday, May 1st, 2009

The threat of pandemic, coming on top of the global financial and economic crisis, has set me thinking afresh about how we respond to crises.   The economist Paul Romer said that ‘a crisis is a terrible thing to waste’ - pointing to the potential in crisis for creativity and collaboration, the paradigm of ‘creative destruction’.   But in order to realise this benefit we have to acknowledge the possibility that the system that crashes is unsustainable, and that propping it up - making it more ‘resilient’ - may be counter to longer term interests and indeed the new patterns of order that may emerge from the chaos.

Certainly there is not much sign of such creativity so far.  Perhaps the financial meltdown and now the flu are just the wrong kind of crisis?  (more…)